俄罗斯黑海舰队旗舰莫斯科号居然沉了!

这几天虽然忙着汇报和关注上海疫情外溢等事情,但是也看到了俄罗斯黑海舰队旗舰,排水量12000吨的“莫斯科”号光荣级导弹巡洋舰居然沉没的新闻。俄罗斯塔斯社TASS的说法是巡洋舰弹药库失火引发爆炸,船员全部离开,然后在拖船将莫斯科号拉回港口的时候,在大浪中沉没。而乌克兰的说法是被乌克兰发射的“海王星”岸基反舰导弹击沉的。虽然目前还不知道真相,但是一艘这么皮糙肉厚的巡洋舰绝不会这么无缘无故地沉没,有一种说法是俄罗斯士兵作风懒散,在舰上吸烟造成爆炸,但是这种可能性在战时未必成立。另一方面,乌克兰和西方媒体,包括BBC、CBS、CNN、NY-Times等都给出了大量的分析,一致认为是乌克兰“海王星”导弹击沉了莫斯科号。从中可以看得出来,俄罗斯和西方势力相比,在宣传方面处于绝对的弱势,正如我再之前的文章说的那样:我大唐虽然军事、经济等硬实力很强,但是在金融、宣传、教育等软实力方面非常弱,如果未来开战,那么在这些领域也是要吃亏的。从俄乌冲突事件就可以看得很清楚。

一、塔斯社的消息

塔斯社一共发布了四条消息。

4月14日上午7:54分发布消息,“Fire breaks out onboard Moskva missile cruiser, crew evacuated — defense ministry”。火灾造成了弹药爆炸造成莫斯科号严重损害,船员疏散。莫斯科舰是1164项目的首舰,1983年服役,1996年改名为莫斯科号,目前装备16个P-1000 Vulkan反舰导弹发射架。

4月14日下午18:32发布第二条消息“Cruiser Moskva retains buoyancy, explosions of ammunition stopped — Defense Ministry”。莫斯科号上的火灾和弹药爆炸已经停止,巡洋舰遗留了浮力,其他导弹没有损坏,将拖回港口维修,火灾原因不详。

4月15日凌晨4:01发布了第三条消息,“Moskva cruiser sank while being towed in a storm — Russian Defense Ministry”。在拖曳过程中,由于火灾和爆炸造成船体受损,船舶丧失稳定性,在暴风雨中沉没。

4月15日晚上20:28发布了第四条消息,“Sevastopol suggests preserving memory of Black Sea Fleet’s sunken flagship Moskva”。黑海舰队主海军基地塞瓦斯托波尔的历史学家和参议员叶卡捷琳娜阿尔塔巴耶娃说,黑海舰队沉没的近卫导弹巡洋舰旗舰莫斯科号的回忆应该保存在塞瓦斯托波尔。塞瓦斯托波尔州长米哈伊尔·拉兹沃扎耶夫周五表示,俄罗斯黑海舰队的旗舰莫斯科号一直是塞瓦斯托波尔的象征,失去它对该市居民来说是一种痛苦。州长张贴了 2008 年军舰进入塞瓦斯托波尔湾的照片,并在岸上和小船上受到俄罗斯国旗的欢迎。在 1990 年代初期,莫斯科号(当时命名为 Slava)本可以退役。在莫斯科市长尤里·卢日科夫(Yury Luzhkov)领导的莫斯科政府的协助下,这艘军舰于 1999 年重新进入俄罗斯海军服役,并因此获得了现在的名称。2015年下半年,这艘巡洋舰率领俄罗斯海军常备地中海特遣部队,用其防空武器保护俄罗斯在叙利亚的赫梅米姆空军基地。 2016 年 7 月 22 日,巡洋舰莫斯科号被授予海军纳希莫夫勋章。到2020年,俄罗斯造船厂已经完成了历时数年的军舰维修和升级。旗舰莫斯科号预计将服役 60 年,直至 2040 年

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10 Sep 1983,Aerial starboard beam view of the Soviet cruiser SLAVA, first of its class, underway.

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The Russian guided missile cruiser “Moskva,” flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, is seen anchored near Mumbai, India in a May 21, 2003 file photo.

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22 July 2009,“Moskva” (“Moscow”) (ex-“Slava”, which means “Glory”) is the lead ship of the Project 1164 Atlant class of guided missile cruisers in the Russian Navy. The Project 1164 Atlant class was developed as “Aircraft carriers killer”. This warship was used in the 2008 Russia-Georgia War. The Black Sea. Sevastopol bay. This photo was taken from a boat.

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2 August 2012, 18:02:29,Russian cruiser Moskva,两架直升机似乎是米24

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RTS Moskva (121) on June 18, 2021. Photo by Yörük Işık‏

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莫斯科号是一艘武库舰,特别是,具有8×8远程防空导弹S-300F,这可以作为整个舰队的防空力量,让飞机不敢靠近,可以说,这就是黑海舰队的保护伞。但是莫斯科号的雷达能力很差,看上去,全部都是老式的机扫雷达,不仅反应速度差,而且精度不足,并且存在干扰,这对低空突防的导弹有了可乘之机。6座老式的AK-630近防炮能力也不足。

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Graphic by H I Sutton,这个角度看的更清楚

 

二、乌克兰和西方媒体的消息

正如我之前的分析,美帝一直在支持乌克兰,包括政治、经济、军事、宣传和情报。由于未必敢大规模参展,美帝的情报就特别重要了。美帝一直在情报方面大体提供支持乌克兰:情报这玩意自己不死人、不显山露水,但是效果却很厉害。从事后发布的消息看,美帝一直在监视俄罗斯黑海舰队旗舰莫斯科号,这是黑海舰队的核心,有很强的军事价值和政治意义。不仅有光学镜头,还有合成孔径雷达。从最近的分析看,乌克兰采用了一些战术手段。乌克兰一边用几架TB2无人机在高空吸引莫斯科号巡洋舰的雷达,一边偷偷摸摸在Odesa基地附近的海边部署“海王星”反舰导弹,海王星反舰导弹采用车载方式发射,具有较好的机动性,两发齐射,贴海飞行,命中了莫斯科号的左舷并引发了爆炸和大火,510名船员乘坐救生艇逃离。下面两个图都展示了这次战术。

后面的图片显示了各种美国卫星对俄罗斯号巡洋舰和Sevastopol港口的密切跟踪,如果读图人员跟得上,看上去可以达到实时监控水平。

4月7日:莫斯科号停留在Sevastopol军港

4月10日:莫斯科号离开港口活动

4月12日:莫斯科号Moskva was about 60-65 nautical miles south of Odesa

4月13日:莫斯科号在45°10’43.39″N, 30°55’30.54″E位置起火,周围有几艘俄罗斯小型舰艇

4月14日:两艘俄罗斯军舰(含一艘登陆舰)离开Sevastopol军港,前往乌克兰方向执行任务

作为报复,4月15日,俄罗斯用口径巡航导弹攻击了基辅附近的导弹工厂(Vizar plant),当地居民说听到了5次爆炸

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Russia said the number and scale of missile strikes against targets in Kyiv will increase “in response to any terrorist attacks or sabotage committed by the Kyiv nationalist regime on Russian territory” Photo: AFP / FADEL SENNA

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3M-54E 口径反舰导弹

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乌克兰采用引诱战术将莫斯科号吸引到Odesa基地附近,最后用反舰导弹围歼。

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The surprise attack took place at 2 a.m. yesterday when the Moskva, Russia’s main “command and control” warship, was 60 miles south of Odessa。The ship’s captain and air defense officers are said to have been stalking the TB2 decoys, unaware that a pair of Ukrainian-made Neptune R360 anti-ship missiles were coming their way after being fired from a coastal artillery battery. The one-ton missiles with a range of 170 nautical miles approached the Moscow River at sea level. Traveling on such a low trajectory in rough seas meant they were difficult to track. Two missiles slammed into the port side of the 611-foot Moscow River, As flames lit up the stormy Black Sea, the ship’s 510 crew members desperately climbed into lifeboats and fled.

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Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles. Ukraine MoD Photo. Neptunes, first fielded in 2021, are based on the Soviet AS-20 ‘Kayak’anti-ship missile which is similar to the U.S.-built Harpoon missile.

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March 25,A satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies shows a burnt and partially submerged Russian landing ship – the Orsk – near one of the port’s loading/unloading docks, in the southern port city of Berdyansk, Ukraine, March 25, 2022

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April 7: The Moskva is pictured in Sevastopol, occupied Crimea, which is the home port of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. The Soviet-era ship leads the fleet, and is equipped with anti-ship, anti-air and anti-submarine missiles

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April 10: The Moskva (pictured last week near the port of Sevastopol) has been helping coordinate Russian naval operation in the Black Sea, which has seen ships set up a distant blockade of Ukrainian ports and open fire on cities with cruise missiles

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April 12, RTS Moskva (121) off the coast of Ukraine on April 12, 2022. Graphic by H I Sutton, Earlier on Thursday, a senior defense official could not confirm what caused the fire on the cruiser. Moskva was about 60-65 nautical miles south of Odesa when the fire started, the official told reporters.

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April 13, 6.52pm。A ship, understood to be Moskva, is seen surrounded by smaller vessels. The image is created using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) which can see through clouds. According to Russian accounts she was on fire and exploded. And sunk later while under tow. Black Sea on April 13, appears to pinpoint the stricken ship. Other vessels are seen in attendance. The location of the event can now, for the first time, be given coordinates. A ship matching Moskva’s size and situation is seen at 45°10’43.39″N, 30°55’30.54″E. This position is east of Snake Island, 80 nautical miles from Odesa and 50 nautical miles from the Ukrainian coast. The satellite passed at 6.52pm local time. Based on analysis by multiple people, we are confident that this shows Moskva’s final hours.

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April 15 6:30PM,Fresh satellite imagery shows increased Russian Naval activity。At around 6.30pm local time on April 15 a radar satellite covered Crimea. Two formations of Russian Navy warships, likely including Landing ships, are seen steaming northwest. Their direction suggests that they are sailing towards the Ukrainian coast. There is also increased activity near to the naval base of Sevastopol. This subsequently died down, implying that the vessels had left Sevastopol. It is possible that a fresh operation is underway.

 

三、前期调研和小结

俄罗斯一方失去了黑海舰队的防空保护伞,后续出海作战的风险进一步提高。而乌克兰一方通过高技术游击战建立了自信,未来会进一步在精准情报的支援下,进一步打击俄罗斯的重点军事目标。从这次事件后,军事冲突进一步升级,作战模式更加复杂,情报战重要性更加提高,俄乌的梁子更深了,要想结束更难了。

我在俄乌冲突开始前,就跟踪了俄罗斯黑海舰队的30艘舰艇参加的军事演习,当时通过卫星地图仔细调研了黑海舰队的舰艇(http://www.brofive.org/?p=10831),从网络信息看,黑海舰队还是不小的舰队,有62艘军舰、52架飞机、2.2万官兵。如下:

俄黑海舰队是俄保卫外高加索沿海、黑海经济区及威慑黑海水域潜在敌人的重要军事力量。2008年9月俄黑海舰队在编官兵2.2万人,装备各型舰艇62艘,各型飞机52架。截至2008年:
黑海舰队下辖:第30水面舰总队(包括第11反潜舰支队和第197登陆舰支队),第41导弹艇支队,第68水警舰支队,第247潜艇大队和新罗西斯克海军基地(其主要舰艇部队是第184水警舰支队)。
黑海舰队岸上部队包括:第11独立海岸导弹-炮兵旅,第810海军陆战团和第382独立海军陆战营,第1096独立防空导弹团。
黑海舰队航空兵部队包括:第43独立海军强击机团(苏-24和苏-24MR),第317独立混成航空团,第25独立反潜直升机团。水面军舰方面,黑海舰队主要有两个基地:塞瓦斯托波尔基地
新罗西斯克基地

结合两个基地的数量统计和判读(大约在2020年前后),卫星地图上黑海舰队可见的主要舰艇有27艘,排水量超过2000吨的11艘,其余都是中小型护卫舰、护卫艇。要凑出来30艘舰艇开展演习真不是太容易,预计要补充一些辅助舰船。地图上的舰艇如下,从中可以知道莫斯科号实际上是舰队保护伞,其他的驱逐舰和护卫舰的防空能力都很弱,最大射程也有25-45km左右,这个距离没法预防空射反舰导弹的攻击。

巡洋舰:1艘,光荣级莫斯科号(12000吨)

驱逐舰:1艘,卡辛级(4500吨)

护卫舰:4艘,两艘克里瓦克护卫舰(1135,3200吨)、两艘塔尔瓦级护卫舰(11356R,4000吨)

登陆舰:>=5艘,775蟾蜍级(3900吨)

巡逻舰:1艘,22160型“谢尔盖科托夫”型(1500吨)

反潜舰:2艘,1124型(1000吨)

潜艇:>=5艘,3艘Kilo级,2艘其他常规潜艇

导弹艇:>=8艘,1艘22800导弹艇(650吨)、5艘毒蜘蛛导弹艇(450吨)、3艘暴徒M导弹护卫艇(520吨)

 

更多信息请阅读:俄黑海舰队能派出30多艘什么舰艇参加军事演习?

 

相关信息:

Sevastopol suggests preserving memory of Black Sea Fleet’s sunken flagship Moskva

Moskva cruiser sank while being towed in a storm — Russian Defense Ministry

https://tass.com/politics/1437605

https://tass.com/emergencies/1437443

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/04/satellite-image-pinpoints-russian-cruiser-moskva-as-she-burned/

https://thefederalist.com/2022/04/15/ukrainian-attack-on-russian-missile-cruiser-is-the-largest-warship-sunk-since-wwii/

https://www.nytimespost.com/russias-black-sea-flagship-the-moskva-has-sunk-moscows-defence-agency-admits/

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/15/europe/russia-guided-missile-cruiser-moskva-sinks-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

https://www.spamchronicles.com/brilliant-trick-that-blew-up-russias-flagship-warship-sunk-by-two-ukrainian-missiles/

https://news.usni.org/2022/04/13/russian-navy-confirms-severe-damage-to-black-sea-cruiser-moskva-crew-abandoned-ship

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/moskva-russia-navy-ship-sinks-ukraine-missile-strike/

https://whatsnew2day.com/go-f-yourself-russian-warship-is-blown-up-cruiser-moskva-is-hit-by-ukrainian-missile/

https://www.ibtimes.com/russia-hits-kyiv-missile-factory-after-flagship-sunk-3475532

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